Spatiotemporal Analysis of Traditional Villages in Southern Jiangsu Based on GIS and Historical Data

This study investigates the spatiotemporal distribution and evolution of traditional villages in southern Jiangsu Province, China. By integrating historical documents, remote sensing images, and socio-economic statistics, we have applied standard geographic information system (GIS) methods, including kernel density estimation, nearest neighbor analysis, and standard deviation ellipse analysis, to examine the patterns and driving forces behind village formation and transformation. The findings are as follows: (1) The spatial distribution of the villages exhibits a spatial pattern of “peripheral agglomeration and central decline,” with a nearest neighbor index value of 0.84 (z = −2.52, p < 0.05), indicating a significantly clustered distribution. Kernel density analysis revealed high-density zones along the southwestern coast of Taihu Lake and southeastern Dianshan Lake. (2) From the Song to the Qing Dynasty, village migration followed three sequential phases, “stabilizing near water → avoiding risks around water → adapting inland,” showing strong spatiotemporal linkages to climate change and warfare. (3) The density of the villages showed a significant negative correlation with the per capita GDP (Moran’s I = −0.69, p < 0.05; 0.69, p < 0.01) and was positively correlated with the proportion of primary industry. These findings highlight the spatial resilience characteristics of traditional villages under combined natural and socio-economic pressures and provide a theoretical foundation for regional heritage conservation and rural revitalization strategies.