Study on Risk Coupling Measurement of Cold Chain Logistics in Fresh E-Commerce Based on N-K Model

生鲜电商的发展离不开冷链物流，然而现阶段我国冷链物流环节相对薄弱，这制约了生鲜电商的健康发展，因此本文研究冷链物流中各种潜在风险因素的耦合特性，为生鲜电商冷链物流行业的发展和消费者的消费安全提供参考。基于LDA主题模型对冷链物流系统中的风险因素进行识别，构建冷链物流风险指标体系，运用N-K模型进行耦合度度量。研究发现：冷链物流风险共包括人员、设备、管理和环境等4类风险要素，其中设备因素和管理因素在整个冷链物流系统中，存在风险耦合性是最大的，也是对冷链物流系统的安全运作威胁最大的耦合风险类型，应尽量减小设备–管理因素间内部风险耦合，最后基于评估结果向生鲜电商行业提出冷链物流风险控制措施。The development of fresh e-commerce cannot do without cold chain logistics. However, at this stage, China’s cold chain logistics sector is relatively weak, which hinders the healthy development of fresh e-commerce. Therefore, this paper studies the coupling characteristics of various potential risk factors in cold chain logistics to provide reference for the development of the cold chain logistics industry for fresh e-commerce and consumer safety. Based on the LDA topic model, risk factors in the cold chain logistics system are identified, and a cold chain logistics risk indicator system is constructed. The N-K model is used to measure coupling degree. The study finds that cold chain logistics risks include four categories: personnel, equipment, management, and environment. Among these, equipment and management factors have the greatest risk coupling within the entire cold chain logistics system, posing the most significant threat to the safe operation of the cold chain logistics system. Efforts should be made to minimize internal risk coupling between equipment and management factors. Finally, based on the evaluation results, control measures for cold chain logistics risks are proposed for the fresh e-commerce industry.