Automated urban buses: an application of autonomous vehicle technology on route to sustainable development?

Automation is strongly promoted in the road transport sector as a technology with economic development and transport efficiency potential, but evidence about the actual outcomes of road sector automation is limited and contradictory. It is proposed that broad sustainability benefits are most likely to be achieved if automation is applied to the bus system, as it is already relatively efficient and socially inclusive. However, significant service quality benefits are only likely to be achieved if completely crewless operation is possible. And even in the case of the bus, it is important to assess whether automation would, overall, support sustainable development objectives. The present paper tests this proposition, drawing on a unique automated urban bus service demonstration which operated in Didcot (UK) in 2023 as part of the MultiCAV Project. The paper takes a novel approach to assessing the future implications of technological innovations by applying the UN Sustainable Development Goals. A review of how the SDGS have been applied in (mainly retrospective) policy evaluation informs the development of a framework for assessing bus automation. Outcomes hypothesised to arise from a list of 22 SDG indicators are presented, and these hypotheses are evaluated using qualitative evidence from MultiCAV. It is found that bus automation could influence outcomes for up to 12 SDGs, but the most significant potential lies with indicators linked to economic activity, public transport use, and spatial development. However, due to the current stage of technological development, which does not permit crewless operation, the main benefit in the near future is identified as support for the innovation economy, although socioeconomic and transport benefits also arise from driver assistance technologies. It is concluded that the SDGs provide an effective framework for the sustainability appraisal of innovation, although the indicators must be selected for both the technology and its context.