Halving of Australian children’s naevus counts during 1992–2016 and change in sun behaviour

We propose that, in Queensland through the 1990s and 2000s, children's sun exposure has been altered by changes in behaviour. Looking at studies counting naevi in populations at different latitudes, we estimate the observed fall in naevus counts would be consistent with a 11.7% fall in average annual UVR dose (clear sky erythemal spectrum, from 1503 kJ m-2 to 1327 kJ m-2). Based on published risk prediction equations, the fall in mean naevus number over time should lead to a fourfold drop in lifetime melanoma risk for those born after 2000 compared with those born in the 1980s.