A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF TÜRKİYE’S CROSS-BORDER COUNTERTERRORISM OPERATIONS ON IRAQ’S STABILITY: 2004-2023

The main purpose of this study is to examine the spatial impact of Türkiye's cross-border operations on Iraq, particularly focusing on their potential to destabilize the northern region using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Türkiye's operations are often criticized in both political discourse and academic literature, with the argument that they disrupt the stability of Iraq's northern provinces, which are considered to be among the most stable parts of the country. To investigate this claim, this study employs Global Moran's I* and Getis-Ord General G analyses to assess the spatial distribution of attack intensity across Iraqi provinces. The time period considered is the post-occupation era. To further delve into the dynamics of violence, the analysis will be divided into three sub-periods based on significant changes in attack patterns in general: 2004-2012, 2013-2017, and 2018-2023. Additionally, to ensure the reliability of the results, the analyses will be conducted both with and without data on Türkiye's involvement. To enhance the robustness of the findings, comparative analyses will be conducted both with and without incorporating data on Türkiye's military interventions. The results of this study will provide valuable insights into the complex relationship between cross-border operations and regional stability in the Middle East. The study concluded that Türkiye's operations did not statistically affect the spatial distribution of violence in North of Iraq.