The Hispanic Vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections

This study analyzes the Hispanic vote in the 2024 U.S. elections, comparing census, survey, and exit poll data. We examine the size, distribution, and participation of the Hispanic electorate, as well as the behavior of Hispanic voters with respect to the variables of home language, ancestry (observing notable differences between Cubans, Mexicans, and Puerto Ricans), sex, age (noting stronger support for Republicans among young men), education, economic status, and religion. We identified family economics as a priority that cut across these variables. Additionally, we evaluate party preferences in ten key states—California, Texas, Florida, and the swing states—highlighting the relative increase in Hispanic support for the candidacy of Donald Trump. Moreover, we identified significant discrepancies between polls like the NEP and the 2024 AEVP—attributable to methodological deficiencies and biases—that demonstrate the difficulty of measuring the minority vote, as well as the need to revise dominant media narratives and reinterpret the so-called “Hispanic shift” toward the Republican Party. Similarly, calculations based on the most commonly cited estimates suggest that the Hispanic vote was not a decisive factor in Donald Trump’s victory, a finding at odds with the dominant narrative in media discourse.