Agricultural Geography and International Water Conflict: Evidence from Remotely Sensed Data

Abstracts As global warming intensifies water stress, the geopolitics of shared water resources have become increasingly urgent, complex, and contentious. This study investigates the role of agricultural geography—specifically the size, location, and spatial configuration of agricultural land—in shaping water stress and its management, ultimately influencing the likelihood of international water conflict. To empirically address these dynamics, we introduce novel spatiotemporal measures of agricultural land features, using remotely sensed data and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. Analyzing data from 311 country dyads within 58 international river basins over seven years, our study finds that extensive agricultural land spanning multiple sovereign territories in shared basins is associated with a high probability of international water conflict. While the upstream-downstream configuration does not inherently heighten conflict risk, the likelihood rises with larger upstream agricultural areas, particularly when coupled with extensive downstream agricultural land. These findings enhance our understanding of how geographic factors beyond mere proximity shape international security dynamics, and offer practical implications for conflict prevention, water resource management, and climate change governance.