Climate change impacts on the distribution and ecological niche overlap of Aromia bungii and its natural enemies: implications for biological control

• Two natural enemies are important regulators of Aromia bungii in central China. • Ecological niche of the two natural enemies against A. bungii were highly similar. • Climate change expands suitable habitat for P. canus and S. sichuanensis. • Climate change has contributed to the spread of three species to higher latitudes. Climate change is profoundly affecting the geographical distribution and ecological adaptability of species, posing new challenges to the spatial distribution patterns of pests and their natural enemies. To assess the potential impact of climate change on the effectiveness of biological control, this study applied ensemble models and ecological niche hypervolume analysis to predict the suitable habitats of Aromia bungii and its natural enemies, Picus canus and Sclerodermus sichuanensis , under current and future climate conditions, while also analyzing the niche overlap between the natural enemies and the pest. The results indicate that under the current climate, the eastern, central, and southern regions of China are key areas where the suitable habitats of natural enemies highly overlap with that of A. bungii . In the future, climate change will expand the suitable habitats of natural enemies and cause the distribution centers of the three species to shift toward higher latitudes. Additionally, the strong overlap of ecological niches of the two natural enemies with A. bungii suggests that they have the potential to control pest populations in terms of ecological adaptations. The findings provide scientific evidence for assessing the spatial dynamics of pests and their natural enemies under the context of climate change, and offer theoretical support for optimizing biological control strategies, formulating precise pest management measures, and maintaining ecosystem stability.