ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF SANCTIONS ON AGRICULTURE IN RUSSIA'S ARCTIC REGIONS

With the aggravation of the global political situation due to increased sanctions from Western countries, the task of increasing the level of self-sufficiency in food in Russia is of particular importance. The article provides a scenario analysis of the potential consequences caused by the current sanctions regime on the provision of food to the population of the Arctic territories of the Russian Federation. The study is based on a spatial model of partial equilibrium in the wholesale markets of agricultural products of the subjects of the Russian Federation of the Federal State Budgetary Institution "All-Russian Institute of Agrarian Problems and Informatics named after A.A.Nikonov". An assessment of the financial balance of agricultural production is given, changes in output and price indices are analyzed under the influence of the main sanctions threats, which include barriers to exports and a reduction in means of production. The deviations of the revenue of agricultural organizations from the baseline scenario are calculated, as a result of which the impact of the outcomes on the amount of state aid is estimated. Based on the identified trends, it is concluded that the sanctions pressure has a negative impact on the provision of food to the population and the financial condition of agricultural sector entities. The special importance of state support is highlighted, and the need to develop mechanisms for its improvement aimed at reducing and preventing the consequences of sanctions is established.