A Data—Mechanism Hybrid Driven Approach to Probabilistic Modeling of the Flexibility of Price-Based Demand Response

Price-based demand response (PBDR), as a major flexible resource on the demand side, can smooth out renewable energy fluctuations and uncertainties and guarantee safe and stable operation of power grids. We investigated the electricity price response characteristics of PBDR, established a mechanism-driven PBDR pre-response load data generation model and data-driven probabilistic modeling of PBDR, and realized the data–mechanism hybrid driven modeling. A PBDR flexibility model based on multidimensional flexibility evaluation indexes was proposed, and the range of PBDR flexibility was portrayed in the form of probability distribution and confidence interval. Compared with traditional mechanism models and data-driven models, the model proposed in this study was more accurate and reliable. It can provide comprehensive and valuable data support for optimal scheduling decision making for power systems.