Electric Vehicle Charging Station Investment Benefit Evaluation Model Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

This study develops a life cycle-based evaluation model to assess the profitability of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure, integrating revenue (electricity sales, service fees, subsidies), costs (initial investment, operations, maintenance), and key metrics (NPV, ROI). Uncertainties in charging demand are quantified via Monte Carlo simulation, yielding ROI probability distributions and risk indices. Case analysis of 6.6kW slow chargers and 350kW fast chargers (2025~034) reveals: slow chargers maintain stable positive ROI growth, while fast chargers experience initial negative ROI due to high upfront costs but eventually recover, albeit with lower overall ROI. The model provides a robust analytical framework for optimizing EV charging investments by balancing demand fluctuations and long-term risks, supporting sustainable development of resilient charging networks. It highlights the necessity of considering technology cost trends and policy dynamics in evaluating infrastructure scalability under carbon neutrality goals.