Research on Carbon Footprint Analysis and Prediction of New Energy Vehicles with Different Types of Power Batteries

In the context of global advocacy for green and sustainable development, new energy vehicles (NEVs), especially battery electric vehicles (BEVs), are key to the green transformation of the transportation sector. As the core of BEVs, the carbon emissions of power batteries have a significant impact on the carbon footprint of the vehicle's entire life cycle. This study evaluates the carbon footprint of different links in the lifecycle of BEVs and the carbon emissions of the fleet of annual new vehicles, based on lifecycle carbon footprint assessment theory and considering the adoption rates of different types of power batteries and the forecast of sales volume for BEVs. The results show that lithium iron phosphate batteries have a significant carbon reduction advantage, with the life cycle carbon footprints equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries and nickel-cobalt-manganese ternary batteries being 114 gCO<inf xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</inf>/km and 121 gCO<inf xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</inf>/km respectively in 2030. As the carbon footprint of batteries decreases, the proportion of battery production in the life cycle carbon footprint will decline, falling to 22.3% and 15.7<sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">%</sup> respectively for BEVs equipped with nickel-cobalt- manganese ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries by 2030. Although BEVs emit no carbon during use link, the lifecycle carbon emissions of the vehicle fleet increase significantly with sales, expected to reach 180 million tons in 2030. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce lifecycle carbon emission management for BEVs in combination with the actual development of the industry.