Analytical Method for Renewable Energy and Energy Storage Investment Returns Adapted to the Development of Power Spot Markets in New Power System

Since China's “dual carbon” goals, renewable energy capacity has surged, with several provinces exceeding 50% of total capacity. As the spot market develops and subsidies decrease, high-renewable regions face declining market prices when renewable output rises, challenging cost recovery for renewable projects. This study uses wind power as a case to assess cost recovery under different installed capacities through a wind-thermal-storage simulation and an 8760-hour day-ahead market analysis. Results show that wind power units recover costs in low-renewable scenarios but struggle in high-renewable scenarios due to falling prices, while energy storage systems become marginally profitable. The study recommends long-term contracts and optimized storage configurations to support investment returns.