Market-Driven Multi-Stage Generation Expansion Planning for Hydrogen-Penetrated Power Systems Towards Energy Transition

Under the carbon neutrality target, the energy transition of power systems requires a well-designed long-term generation expansion plan to ensure safe, stable, and low-carbon operation. To address the challenge of centralized planning failing to balance generation expansion and load development effectively, a market-driven multi-stage generation expansion planning (MMGEP) model is proposed, which incorporates the supply function equilibrium model to simulate bidding behavior in the electricity market, leveraging market forces to guide generation planning and incentivize demand response. The MMGEP model is formulated as a game-theoretic optimization problem and further reformulated into a single-layer quadratic programming model to reduce the computational complexity. Moreover, the latest capacity tariff mechanism is integrated into the MMGEP model to evaluate its effectiveness in guiding planning and reducing energy supply costs. Additionally, the optimal capacity tariff pricing range for enhancing the cost competitiveness of thermal power units is identified. A case study based on the latest real-world data from Jiangsu Province in China demonstrates the advantages of the MMGEP model over the centralized planning model and emphasizes the effectiveness of introducing market mechanisms into generation expansion planning.