From Incident Causes to Resilience Enhancement: a Cyber-Physical-Social Systems Framework for Power Grid Risk Analysis

The escalating complexity of modern power grids necessitates a paradigm shift from single-dimension risk assessment to a holistic approach. This paper proposes a novel Cyber-Physical-Social Systems (CPSs) framework that integrates multi-dimensional interactions among physical infrastructure, cyber networks, and societal impacts. By analyzing 200 historical failure cases, we develop a weighted Coupling Risk Index (CRI) model that quantifies both intra-dimension probabilities and inter-dimension synergistic effects. Unlike traditional models, our CRI incorporates dynamic weight allocation and nonlinear coupling coefficients derived from empirical data, revealing that physical-cyber interdependencies amplify social disturbances by 32 % in critical scenarios. Furthermore, we propose crossdimensional mitigation strategies validated through resilience phase analysis.