STATE AND FORECAST OF TECHNICAL SUPPORT OF HARVESTING OPERATIONS IN THE GRAIN-PRODUCING COMPLEX OF RUSSIA

The state of technical support of harvesting operations in the grain complex of Russia has been analyzed and the forecast of changes in the fleet of combine harvesters and the level of their provision has been developed, including three development scenarios: pessimistic, optimistic and investment. In accordance with the pessimistic scenario, which provides for the preservation of current trends of the last 10 years, the fleet of combine harvesters will decrease to the level of 122.4 thousand units by 2030, while taking into account the introduction of fallow lands into turnover the level of provision will decrease to 2.1 units / 1000 hectares of sown areas of grain crops. Under the optimistic scenario, the achievement of the goal of provision with combine harvesters at the level of 4.2 units / 1000 hectares of sown areas of grain crops, taking into account the introduction of fallow lands into turnover, is possible with the increase of the fleet up to 243.2 thousand units by 2030 due to the increase in the acquisition of 37.0 thousand units/year. The level of annual fleet renewal in this case will amount to at least 15%, and the share of combine harvesters more than 10 years old by 2030 may decrease to 28.2%. If the investment scenario is realized, the achievement of the goal of provision with combine harvesters at the level of 5.6 units / 1000 hectares of sown areas of grain crops, taking into account the introduction of fallow lands into turnover, is possible with the increase of the fleet up to 322.4 thousand units by increasing the acquisition to 65.0 thousand units/year by 2030. The level of annual fleet renewal in this case will be not less than 20%, and the share of combine harvesters more than 10 years old by 2030 may decrease to 21.3%. The required volume of investments for the purchase of combine harvesters for the implementation of the optimistic scenario in the period of 2025-2030 without taking into account inflation will tentatively amount to 3582 billion rubles, and for the implementation of the investment scenario - 5422 billion rubles.