Croissance Sino-européenne et activité en Afrique subsaharienne. La dépendance économique du continent sous les projecteurs d’une pandémie

Coronavirus disease is a global concern, and a challenge to political decision-makers everywhere. African countries whose trade links with the European Union continue despite the continent’s strengthened trade partnership with China are bound to be affected. To ascertain and quantify this impact, a random effects model was selected and applied to annual data (2005-2017) from 12 countries in the region. The results of the estimates suggest that a 1.0% fall in Chinese growth alone could cause the economies of sub-Saharan African countries to shrink by 0.34%. The starting point for this impact is the vulnerability of these countries, as evidenced by the high concentration of their exports to China, even though these consist mainly of “fossil” resources. Moreover, growth in the European Union has proved insignificant, given the trade migration observed in recent years, which has not, however, put an end to dependency. Hence the urgent need to effectively diversify the economies of sub-Saharan countries, particularly in terms of partners.