Evaluating the Effect of Climate Change on Dokan Lake and the Vegetation Surrounding Area Using Advanced Analytical Techniques

The regions surrounding Dokan Lake are highly vulnerable to recent climate change, which disrupts ecosystems, hydrological cycles, and vegetation, particularly in water-scarce areas. Thus, this study uses remote sensing techniques, such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), to monitor vegetation and drought conditions. In order to calculate hydrological parameters that identify changes in the lake's water level from 2014 to 2023 and to assess vegetation changes in the Khdran, Khalakan, Ranya, and Chwarqurna areas that are close to Dokan Lake. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is another tool used to analyze precipitation patterns and identify the wettest and driest years during this time frame. Advanced analytical techniques are used in this study, including statistical tools, GIS, and remote sensing. To determine seasonal water levels, hydrological data, including precipitation and water levels, were gathered from the Dokan Dam and processed using ArcGIS (10.7.1) and GraphPad Prism (8.0.2). Vegetation and drought conditions were analyzed using the NDVI and VCI indices. A correlation analysis between water levels and SPI revealed a moderate and statistically significant relationship (P-value < 0.05; P-value = 0.034). According to the findings, the lake's area fluctuated significantly, with the largest expansion occurring in 2019. Vegetation conditions, as assessed by the VCI index, indicate that extreme drought occurred in 2014 but significantly increased by 2022. Areas with moderate drought remained stable, while regions with mild drought experienced a gradual decrease after 2019. According to SPI analysis, 2019 was a wet year (SPI = 2.22), while 2022 saw a moderate drought (SPI = -1.18). In conclusion, the study highlights the need to consider multiple climate parameters for effective water management and climate change adaptation. The results emphasize the significance of understanding the interaction between hydrology, vegetation, and climate, which is essential for sustainable development in regions vulnerable to climate change.