Range shifts of Vigna crop wild relatives under a climate change scenario in Mozambique

Abstract Understanding how climate change affects crop wild relatives (CWRs) is crucial for both biodiversity conservation and food security. The present study assesses the current and future habitat suitability of six Vigna CWRs taxa in Mozambique using species distribution modelling. Our results show that Vigna CWRs occupy diverse habitats, primarily in southern and southeastern Mozambique, with coastal areas exhibiting the highest suitability. We identified key climatic factors shaping these taxa distributions, specifically focusing on the precipitation of the warmest month and driest quarter. Future projections indicate sizable habitat losses, ranging from 1 to 99% by 2090, with inland regions expected to experience the highest impact. Taxa with restricted distribution, such as Vigna unguiculata subsp. pawekiae , face the highest risk of extinction. By integrating land cover and land use (LULC) constraints with climatic models, we observed even higher declines in habitat suitability, highlighting the influence of anthropogenic pressures on Vigna ’s diversity. Despite these challenges, our findings suggest that coastal habitats may serve as climate refugia in long-term conservation efforts for most Vigna CWRs taxa. However, Mozambique’s protected areas network provides limited coverage of highly suitable areas for these taxa, underscoring the need for urgent implementation of in situ and ex situ conservation measures. Future research should refine habitat suitability models by incorporating additional environmental and anthropogenic factors, along with biotic factors. This research highlights the pressing need for proactive and innovative conservation strategies to protect Vigna CWRs, which are essential for enhancing agricultural resilience and ensuring global food security in the face of climate change.