Silence Across the Ocean? A Comparative Look at the Effects of the “Spiral of Silence” in China and the US Regarding Fukushima Wastewater Release Discourse

Abstract Amid the Fukushima wastewater release controversy, this study explores the spiral of silence theory’s role in international digital discourse, using the cases of China and the US Through a survey conducted in both countries (N = 999), this study investigates how perceived congruency with four distinct reference groups predicts individuals’ intentions to voice opinions on social media. The results underscore expert and SNS (social networking sites) contact congruency as key predictors of driving online opinion expression, with significant differences between the countries. While participants from both countries showed increased expression intentions when their opinions were congruent with SNS contacts and experts, these trends manifested more strongly in China. This study advances the spiral of silence theory by elucidating the sources that shape online opinion climates and exploring the congruency-expression dynamics across countries with differing cultural and socio-political contexts. It offers key insights for global communication strategies in complex scientific and controversial issues.