The e-commerce expansion and waste generation in the EU: A panel vector autoregression approach

This research study applies a multi-method framework, combining Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR), panel threshold models, quantile regressions, and random forest analyses, to investigate how e-commerce (ECOMS) growth affects different waste streams across 27 EU Member States from 2014 to 2023. The research showed that e-commerce expansion strongly amplifies packaging waste generation, whereas total and municipal waste exhibit limited immediate responses. However, threshold analyses suggest that higher unemployment and lower resource productivity can intensify e-commerce's packaging impact, while robust recycling capacity partially mitigates this trend. Quantile regressions further reveal that high-waste countries face particularly pronounced e-commerce effects, underscoring the need for context-specific interventions. These findings highlight the pivotal role of packaging materials in online retail's environmental footprint and emphasize the importance of targeted circular economy measures, such as advanced recycling infrastructure and reduced packaging design, for effectively managing e-commerce-driven waste.