HIGH-TECH DEVELOPMENT IN SWEDEN: ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CYCLICAL COMPONENTS

This study explores the role of cyclic components in the dynamics of Sweden's high-tech exports, presenting a detailed analysis of their structure and impact. The research highlights the significance of the high-tech sector in Sweden, which ranks 24th–25th globally in high-tech export volumes and contributes significantly to the global market, with a share fluctuating between 0.57% and 0.81% over the past five years. Sweden's technological success is rooted in its robust education system, access to venture capital, and government policies fostering innovation. The study employs a novel methodological framework combining traditional linear and parabolic functions with cyclic components. This approach enables the identification and quantification of cyclical characteristics, including period, phase, intensity (amplitude), and their influence on overall dynamics. The findings reveal the presence of economic cycles in Sweden's high-tech export dynamics with periods of 4.0 and 8.7 years. The weighted impact of these cyclic components on export dynamics is significant, ranging from -9% to +7.5%, with a more substantial negative influence exceeding the positive by 1.5%. Moreover, the analysis shows that Sweden’s high-tech export dynamics are less affected by cyclic components compared to other countries, reflecting the stabilizing influence of government policies. The study also examines the cyclicality of high-tech exports as a share of total manufactured exports and GDP, finding moderate fluctuations in these metrics and linking them to market demand and product life cycles. The results underscore the importance of incorporating cyclic components into high-tech export strategies to optimize economic outcomes. Future research will focus on identifying specific factors with cyclical influences and aligning them with economic policies to enhance the resilience of the high-tech sector.