CRITICAL VERIFICATION OF THE ANTHROPOGENIC CARBON FOOTPRINT HYPOTHESIS: IMPLICATIONS OF DETECTING NO CORRELATION BETWEEN CO2 EMISSIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE

This article provides a critical verification of the dominant hypothesis concerning the anthropogenic carbon footprint as the primary cause of modern climate change. Data on CO2 emissions and key climate indicators over the industrial period are analyzed using statistical methods, including correlation analysis and causality tests. A review of methodological issues in the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the climate models used, including data homogenization and the selection of solar activity reconstructions, is presented. The results indicate a weak or ambiguous correlation between anthropogenic CO2 emissions and global climate change, with several studies suggesting that temperature changes precede changes in CO2 concentration. The role of alternative natural factors, such as solar activity, the Earth’s radiogenic heat flux (including potassium-40 decay), and natural hydrogen degassing, is considered. The profound scientific, political, and socio-economic consequences are discussed, including the need to revise existing climate paradigms, international and national (Russian) climate policies, and strategies for municipal governance and adaptation to climate change.