Future climate change promotes the global threat of the emerald ash borer (<i>Agrilus planipennis</i> Fairmaire) to ash species

Abstract Rising global temperatures are significantly affecting species distributions worldwide. Properly assessing the threat of invasive species in the context of global warming is crucial. In this study, we quantitatively assessed the potential threat of emerald ash borer (EAB) against global ash tree species (Fraxinus) under multiple future climate scenarios based on the premise of niche conservatism. Through a multidimensional comparison of overlapping distribution areas and niches forecasted by species distribution modeling, we observed that rising temperatures lead to significant shifts in the habitat ranges of both EABs and Fraxinus species, often resulting in increased overlap of both their suitable habitats and niches. These results indicate that global warming, across most climate scenarios, exacerbates the threat of biological invasions by EABs in all main distribution regions. This study highlights the critical importance of considering both invasive species and their potential hosts in predictive modeling. Additionally, our results establish a well-theoretical foundation for future research and management strategies aimed at protecting vulnerable ecosystems from the expansion of invasive species.