Effect of Climate Change on Production Related Methane Emissions from Rice Production in Pakistan

Climate change poses a significant global threat, profoundly impacting all economic sectors, particularly agriculture. Severe weather patterns, including rising temperatures, heavy rainfall, floods, and droughts, regularly affect Pakistan. Rainfall and floods, along with crop-damaging conditions, force farmers to lose both their homes and livestock. To examine how climate change influences rice production levels in Pakistan, this research investigates various elements contributing to rising methane (CH4) emissions during rice cultivation. The study relies on time series data from 1990 to 2022 to fulfill its objectives. Empirical estimations depend on Newey-West least square regressions for analysis. The first regression analysis indicates that temperature fluctuations, rice area expansion, increased pesticide utilization, higher agricultural value-added per employee, and population growth significantly enhance rice output. Additionally, it demonstrates that real per capita GDP exhibits an inverted U-shaped correlation with rice production. The results of the second regression analysis indicate that pesticide use or water productivity, along with the area harvested, are factors increasing CH4 emissions from rice production; however, rice yield and the labor force in agriculture negatively influence such emissions. The findings will assist policymakers in developing suitable regulations to minimize the growing adversity of climate change on rice cultivation. Furthermore, the study's findings enable policymakers to identify the causes behind elevated methane emissions in rice production so they can effectively reduce methane output in paddy fields.