Climate change and topographic variations affect infestation by Xyleutes ceramica (Walker, 1865) (Lepidoptera: Cossidae) in teak plantations in Thailand

The teak bee-hole borer [<i>Xyleutes ceramica</i> (Walker, 1865)] isconsidered one ofthe most serious pests ofteak (<i>Tectona grandis</i>) inThailand. The present study investigates climatic and topographic variables affecting the infestation ofteak trees by<i>X. ceramica</i> in10 plantations and predicts the risk ofinfestation bythe species under current and future climatic conditions inThailand. Ateach plantation, 48 plots evenly distributed among twelve teak stands were sampled. The infested teak trees inthe plots were assessed, and the coordinates ofthe tree positions were recorded. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used toassess the effects ofenvironmental factors and predict the occurrence probability ofthe species using current and projected (2050) climate data based onthe Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios from multiple global climate models. According toour results, high accuracy values [<i>AUC</i> (area under the curve) =0.852, <i>TSS</i> (true skill statistics) =0.775] ofthe model prediction were obtained, and the infestation was found tobedriven much more byclimate than bytopographic characteristics. Above all, <i>X.ceramica</i> was found toprefer moderate temperatures inahighly distinct seasonal climate. Additionally, relatively low amounts ofpremonsoon rainfall are also found tobefavoured bythe species. The predicted risk map revealed that the northern region isthe core area of<i>X. ceramica</i> infestation inThailand under current and future climatic conditions, but the severity ofinfestation ispredicted togradually decrease under the predicted future climatic conditions. Recommendations for management tominimise tree damage caused by<i>X.ceramica</i> are also presented in this study.