Systemic challenges in Malaysia’s sustainable coconut production system: Rich picture and causal loop analysis

Abstract The coconut industry in Malaysia plays a strategic role in ensuring national food security and supporting rural livelihoods, yet it continues to face persistent structural challenges. These include declining cultivation areas, labour shortages, limited seedling availability, and an increasing dependency on imports despite a surge in global demand for coconuts and their derivatives. As international markets expand, the pressure on producing countries, such as Malaysia, to strengthen their supply chains and enhance production efficiency has intensified. This study employs the Soft System Dynamics Methodology (SSDM), an integrated framework that combines Soft Systems Methodology and System Dynamics, to construct a qualitative model of coconut production in the Malaysian system. Through stakeholder engagement, a rich picture diagram, CATWOE analysis, and a causal loop diagram (CLD) were developed to map systemic interdependencies, feedback structures, and leverage points. The analysis reveals reinforcing and balancing feedback loops associated with land use, income generation, seedling access, and institutional coordination. It also examines the limited effectiveness of past policy frameworks, specifically the National Agri-food Policies (NAP 1.0 and NAP 2.0). It identifies implementation barriers, including funding constraints, institutional fragmentation, and low farmer adoption. While the current CLD remains conceptual and unquantified, it provides a foundational platform for future simulation-based modelling. The findings offer policy-relevant insights that not only support long-term transformation and sustainability in Malaysia’s coconut industry but also contribute to strengthening the resilience of global coconut supply chains amid rising international demand.