STOCHASTIC MODELING OF THE HUMAN RESOURCES RISK MANAGEMENT

Human resources management plays a critical role in any organization and thus, predictive tools of workforce availability would enhance the efficiency of the organization as well it would mitigate any interruptions within the organization. However, the human resources are often prone to the impact of various uncertainties associated with the need of skilled workforce caused by migrations, recession, pandemics, resources shortage, etc. Therefore, one way to quantify these uncertainties are the stochastic modeling approaches of human resources. The stochastic modeling is a powerful tool that can predict with certain probability the events that may occur within the human resources. In the present research a stochastic model, based on probability theory, is developed and proposed for the analysis of human resources dynamics and risk management, for EU during the period of 2006-2013. Therefore, the studies are performed to investigate the correlation between the economic driving factor and dynamics of human resources. The research shows that the stochastic modeling approach can predict with certain probability the dynamics of the human resources correlated with the economic factors. The study also show that stochastic modeling can predict the increase of unemployment during the economic crises, which affected the EU during the period of 2008-2013.