Modeling the relationship between cyclical dynamics of economic and institutional development indicators: the experience of Russia and Central Asian countries in the context of global development

The article discusses the problems of modeling the relationship between cyclical dynamics of indicators of economic and institutional development of Russia and Central Asian countries in the context of global development. The purpose of the work. The article examines the relationship between the institutional and economic indicators of Russia and Central Asian countries in the context of global development. The results of the correlation and regression analysis conducted on the WGI database are described, the role of such factors as the rule of law, the quality of regulation and corruption control is revealed. The conclusion is drawn about the heterogeneity of institutional progress: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan demonstrate progressive development, while Tajikistan and Turkmenistan remain among the outsiders. There is a varying degree of influence of political stability and democracy on the effectiveness of governance. Methodology. The research uses methods of historical and economic analysis, theory of industrial and technological balance of the economy, system paradigm, evolutionary and institutional theory, expert and analytical assessments. Results. The novelty of the analysis lies in the systematic assessment of the institutional determinants of the quality of public administration in Russia and Central Asian countries based on six WGI subindexes. For the first time, the methods of regression, correlation and cluster analysis were integrated within the framework of the comparative approach, which allowed not only to identify the leading institutional factors of management effectiveness, but also to identify the internal consistency of institutional changes. It has been established that such parameters as the rule of law, the quality of regulation and the control of corruption have the greatest impact on the effectiveness of public institutions. Conclusions. The features of the political and institutional model of the region are revealed: sustainable governance is often achieved in conditions of limited political competition, which forms a regionally specific development trajectory. These results complement existing theories of institutional growth and expand the understanding of the sources of sustainability of post-Soviet states.