Methodological Approach to Evaluating the Efficiency of Procurement of Goods, Works, and Services by Territorial Bodies of the FSIN of Russia Based on Chaos Analysis in Data

The modern contractual system of public procurement is an important tool for ensuring public needs for goods, works and services, as well as the rational use of budget funds. However, the existing approaches to evaluating the effectiveness of procurement are mainly focused on the financial component, ignoring such factors as the stability of contract execution, competition, quality of supplies and the level of managerial competence of customers. In this paper, a methodological approach to a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of the contract system is proposed, including an analysis of the randomness of data. The use of fractal analysis, wavelet transformations, correlation dimension, and autocorrelation analysis methods makes it possible to identify hidden patterns, predict instability, and minimize the risks of inefficient budget spending. The developed integrated assessment system is based on accounting for the dynamics of procurement activities, key performance indicators and regression analysis methods. The introduction of a feedback mechanism ensures the flexibility of the methodology and its adaptation to changes in the regulatory framework and market conditions. The presented approach can be used to increase the transparency of procurement procedures and optimize their effectiveness in government agencies.