A predictive model for cash or in-kind transfer in welfare scheme: implications for Indian public distribution system

This study identifies the key socio-economic factors that influence the choice of in-kind and/or cash transfer mechanism used in welfare schemes. We collect secondary data with respect to the identified indicators for different countries and the respective welfare methods they use. Through logistic regression, we investigate the relationship between these dependent and independent variables to establish a predictive model and then validate it through K-Fold Cross-Validation. Our analysis shows that food production index, global hunger index and literacy rate are significant factors those decide whether a country should use in-kind food transfer or cash transfer. This study is a unique attempt to establish a logistic regression model between the independent socio-economic factors of a country and the food-security mechanism they use. Food security is a global issue and the findings from this research could be used to recommend a suitable transfer method in developing countries.