Assessing the vulnerability of agricultural sectors to climate change: a case study for Slovenia

Food systems are becoming increasingly vulnerable due to changing weather conditions. The need to understand the impacts of climate change on food production is growing among researchers, policymakers, and agricultural producers. In Slovenia, an assessment of the climate vulnerability of individual agricultural sectors has not yet been conducted, which motivated this study aimed at developing a suitable methodology. This study introduces a methodology for assessing climate vulnerability, applied to 11 crop production sectors and 5 livestock sectors. The methodology is based on a structured questionnaire comprising three sections: exposure to climate impacts, adaptive capacity for each climate impact, and additional information related to the sector, data availability, and adaptation strategies. The vulnerability of individual agricultural sectors is assessed using a three-point scale that considers the combination of exposure and adaptive capacity for each identified climate impact. Based on the results, the sectors are ranked according to their climate vulnerability using a vulnerability matrix. The results indicate that the outdoor vegetable production has been identified as the most vulnerable agricultural sector. The proposed methodology provides a strong framework for advancing research in this area. However, future research efforts should emphasize the development of quantitative methodologies, which will require the systematic collection of specific data on the impacts and consequences of climate change in agriculture.