The long and winding road of energy transition: A club convergence analysis

Signed by 194 countries and legally binding since 2016, the 2015 Paris agreement stipulates a 45% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 from 2010 levels, with net-zero performance in 2050. To this extent, an ambitious energy transition program has been agreed upon, according to which fossil fuel energy is gradually replaced by renewable energy. How prepared are the world economies to accommodate these requirements, and how conducive is the energy consumption status quo for their fulfilment? To answer this question, we applied a club convergence analysis to the energy usage patterns of 79 developed and developing countries for the time interval 2010–2019. Country clubs were identified for each energy source; the smaller the number of clubs and the more numerous the club membership, the better. According to our analysis, only solar energy showed relative club convergence, coupled with an increasing trend in the average consumption. All other energies showed club convergence. As an additional step, we divided our energy users into big and small consumers, relative to the panel consumption mean. Several patterns emerged. The big consumers of oil and gas converge by either increasing or maintaining their average consumption. The big consumers of coal converge by maintaining their average consumption. Only the biggest consumers of nuclear energy and biofuels and the big consumers of other renewables converge by increasing consumption. Considering the current global consumption level of fossil fuels (81.5% in 2023) and the energy consumption patterns observable during the period 2010–2019, gargantuan efforts are needed to accomplish the energy transition program.