ECONOMIC GROWTH, FDI AND TRADE OPENNESS: CAUSALITY ANALYSIS FOR UZBEKISTAN

This study examines the causality between foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth, and trade openness in Uzbekistan over the period 1997-2023. Based on the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, it is concluded that all of the variables are integrated of order one, or I(1). Johansen cointegration test also confirms the existence of at least two long-run cointegrating vector among the variables in question. A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is employed to examine causality in both the short and long run. The results illustrate a bi-directional relationship between FDI, economic growth, and trade openness in both time frames. These findings are suggestive of the reality that policies of trade liberalization and investment climate can stimulate economic growth, FDI inflows, and trade growth concurrently. The paper presents practical policy implications for ensuring Uzbekistan's macroeconomic stability and long-run development via a coordinated trade and investment policy.