An assessment of the long-term water, greenhouse gas, and cost impacts of low-carbon in situ oil sands technologies

• Novel integrated framework to project oil sands water consumption and GHG emissions. • Market penetration modelling of new low-carbon bitumen in situ recovery techniques. • Water consumption from in situ production decreases by up to 7 % in 2050. • GHG emissions from in situ production decrease by up to 17 % in 2050. • Freshwater use from in situ recovery is 0.05 % of the Athabasca River flow. The oil sands sector is a significant emitter of greenhouse gases, accounting for 11.3 % of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions. In the next 30 years, bitumen production is expected to increase by 1.2 million cubic meters per year, representing a 42 % increase from the 2020 production level; therefore, advancing low-carbon oil sands extraction technologies is critical. While many strategies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from the oil sands sector have been proposed, there are few assessments of associated water-use impacts. To fill this knowledge gap, this research builds on a novel data-intensive and technology-specific model of the in situ bitumen extraction sector in Canada developed to determine the long-term water and greenhouse gas footprints of the penetration of emerging low-carbon oil sands recovery technologies. The market penetration of seven novel low-carbon and three conventional in situ bitumen extraction techniques through four different technology mix scenarios between 2020 and 2050 were considered. The results show maximum water savings and GHG abatement potential in 2050 of 7 % and 17 %, respectively, at a $59/cubic meter water savings cost and a $32/tonne carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gas abatement cost in a high carbon tax scenario. Total water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions are projected to reach 43.8 million cubic meters and 49.9 million tonnes in 2050 under the scenario that best reduces water use and emissions. Although freshwater use from in situ recovery is 0.05 % of the Athabasca River flow, projected annual emissions from the oil sands industry are significant, thus further efforts are needed to meet Canada’s net-zero emissions target by 2050.