RESEARCH OF DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIAN ENTERPRISES OF THE BANKING INDUSTRY UP TO 2026

The article is devoted to the study of the development of Russian banking industry enterprises until 2026. The relevance of the research topic is related to the fact that in 2022 the Russian economy faced significant internal and external shocks. This had a negative impact on the development of Russian banking industry enterprises and the growth of bank lending. Nevertheless, in 2023–2024, there was a gradual recovery in the economic activity of citizens and the business and investment activity of companies in various industrial sectors. The purpose of the study is to formulate the features of the development of Russian enterprises in the banking industry in the context of the main segments of bank lending and customer service. Research materials: statistical data from the Bank of Russia, the National Bureau of Credit Histories, Rosstat, the largest Russian banking organizations, consulting agencies for 2020–2024. The research methods: systematization, comparative analysis, contrastive analysis, rating of Russian enterprises of the banking industry, graphical visualization of statistical data, analysis of statistical time series, generalization, economic and mathematical forecasting, abstract logical method, induction, deduction, systems approach to economic analysis, questionnaire survey of the largest Russian banking organizations. The main results of the research: 1) an analytical review of the main segments of banking activity is presented: small and medium business, large companies, mortgage lending, consumer lending, car loans, segment of attracted funds; 2) the dynamics of net interest margin of banking organizations in the main segments of bank lending and customer service is characterized; 3) the results of forecasting the growth of net interest margin of Russian enterprises of the banking industry in the main segments of bank lending and customer service are presented. Conclusions of the research: 1) a sufficiently high importance of state support, implementation of national programs for restructuring of bank loans in order to optimize the loan portfolio of Russian enterprises of the banking industry is noted; 2) the trend of increasing the share of short-term attracted liabilities supports the dynamics of the net interest margin of Russian enterprises in the banking sector; 3) the least sensitive to interest rate risks were Russian enterprises in the banking sector, which have an extremely high share of mortgage lending among the main segments of customer service and bank lending; 4) the economic activity of citizens in the field of retail lending will be supported by borrowed funds against the background of high inflation, the need to realize deferred consumer demand, and a slow increase in real disposable cash income.