Unfolding Indonesia's Paper Power: Strategic Export Mapping in ASEAN

This study unfolds Indonesia’s strategic position in the ASEAN paper trade by mapping the competitiveness, market dynamics, and export potential of its paper products (HS 4802). It applies analytical tools including Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Trade Specialization Index (TSI), Export Product Dynamics (EPD), and the X-Model. Utilizing secondary data from 2010 to 2019 sourced from the International Trade Centre (ITC), the findings reveal that: (1) Indonesian paper exhibits a competitive edge with a TSI value of 0.95, indicating its status in the export maturation phase; (2) RCA values across ASEAN countries consistently exceed 1, confirming strong comparative advantages; (3) EPD analysis classifies Indonesian paper as a "Rising Star" in the Philippines, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Brunei Darussalam, "Falling Star" in Thailand and Singapore, "Lost Opportunity" in Vietnam, and "Retreat" in Malaysia; (4) The XModel analysis affirms high market development potential in select countries, guiding strategic improvement areas. These findings provide a strategic roadmap for policymakers and exporters to enhance Indonesia’s positioning in the evolving paper market landscape across ASEAN.