Simulation study on the impact of measurement errors in hierarchical Bayesian semi-parametric models

Abstract This study examines the impact of measurement errors on parameter estimates within hierarchical Bayesian semiparametric (HBS) models, with a focus on the Lotka–Volterra predator–prey model as a case study. By employing Gibbs sampling within the Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework, we simulate various levels of measurement errors to assess the robustness of these models. Results indicate that HBS models effectively account for measurement error, mitigating its adverse effects on the accuracy of parameter estimates, especially for complex, nonlinear systems like predator–prey dynamics. The study demonstrates that as sample sizes increase, the models’ ability to recover true population interaction parameters, such as prey birth rates and predator consumption rates, improves significantly. These findings underscore the importance of using advanced Bayesian methods to correct for measurement errors, ensuring reliable statistical inferences in fields like ecological modeling, environmental studies, and agricultural systems. The integration of HBS models enhances the reliability of complex data analyses, providing essential insights into nonlinear interactions in real-world systems.