Predicting habitat suitability for an endangered medicinal plant, Saussurea medusa: insights from ensemble species distribution models

The results show that the suitable habitats, under near current condition, are mainly distributed in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau of China, covering the border regions of four provinces: Xizang, Qinghai, Sichuan, and Yunnan, with a total area of 14.06×10⁴ km². Under future climate change scenarios, the area of suitable habitats, particularly the highly suitable habitats, is projected to contract significantly by 80.65%, accompanied by shifts in distribution centroids towards the southwest and higher altitudes in Xizang. These results indicate that the risk of <i>S. medusa</i> survival due to the loss of suitable habitats would persist in the future. Among the environmental factors analyzed, elevation and three bioclimatic predictors, BIO18 (precipitation of the warmest quarter), BIO12 (annual precipitation) and BIO4 (temperature seasonality), exhibit significant impacts on the potential distribution of suitable habitats for <i>S. medusa</i>. Our study provides an improved understanding of the potential habitat distribution dynamics of the endangered <i>S. medusa</i>, thereby offering a crucial reference for its conservation and sustainable management.