Quantifying PM2.5 Pollution and its Mortality Impacts in Islamabad: An Integrated Approach with Observed and Remote Sensing Data Along with HYSPLIT and AirQ+ Models

Particulate matter causes serious impacts on the atomsphere and human health. In recent time, it has become a crucial concern for the future of our health and environment. The study employed an integrated approach using observed and remote sensing data, HYSPLIT backward trajectory analysis, and AirQ+ models to quantify PM2.5 pollution and assess its mortality impacts in Islamabad in past three years (2020 to 2022). Our results showed that winters in all three years were significantly more polluted than summers. 22nd December 2021 emerged as the most polluted day with 198.96 mg/m3 PM2.5 concentration. Overall, the daily average (123.6 mg/m3) and the average annual mean (33.98 mg/m3) for 2020 to 2022 exceeded the standards promulgated by the National and US-EPA’s National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). The potential source of the pollution was noticed from eastern side of Islamabad i.e., western India, with the help of the HYSPLIT backward trajectories. The study identified a significant correlation of PM2.5 with meteorological (temperature, dew point temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed) and chemical (SO2, NO2 and CO) factors. Moreover, at a concentration of 46.51µg/m3, the attributable proportion (AP) for all-cause mortality was 25%, while ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality had an AP of 37%, and stroke mortality was 45%, all higher in winter than summer. Thus, our findings underscore the severe health impacts of PM2.5 and proved Islamabad as one of the polluted cities in the country. High mortality rates associated with PM2.5 exposure emphasize the urgent need for stringent air quality regulations, targeted health interventions, and public awareness campaigns. Future efforts should focus on integrating advanced data collection methods and implementing sustainable policies to mitigate pollution and protect public health.