Use of a Seasonal Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average Model for the Time Series Analysis of Human Brucellosis
SARFIMA marginally improves HB forecasting accuracy over SARIMA by addressing long-range dependence, but prediction reliability remains limited. Hybrid models integrating environmental/livestock data are recommended. Escalating HB incidence underscores urgent needs for livestock vaccination, public education on unpasteurized dairy risks, and real-time surveillance to mitigate zoonotic transmission in high-risk regions.
Authors
- Bingjie Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0005-0984-6058)
- Yingguang Liang
- Xinxiao Li (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4899-9832)
- Yanyan Li (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1413-8778)
- Yongbin Wang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7854-7020)
- Chenlu Xue (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-1190-0303)
- Peiping Zhou
- Chunjie Xu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0005-2824-1695)
Institutions
- Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College (CN)
- Henan Medical University (CN)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zoonoses and Public Health
- Published
- 2025-06-24
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1111/zph.13229
- Primary Topic
- Brucella: diagnosis, epidemiology, treatment
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- Xinxiang Medical University