Mapping the landscape of livestock depredation: local perceptions as an indicator of conflict severity in north-western Bhutan

Conflict between humans and wild animals accelerates the decline of biodiversity worldwide. The livelihoods of local communities who depend on livestock are threatened when their livestock are killed, often leading to retaliation killing and endangering wild species. Documenting where people experience the greatest threat of predation of their livestock can support the development of policies and management practices for preserving wild species and securing people’s livelihoods. Here, we used spatial modelling to map the perception of local people using interviews in and near Jigme Dorji National Park, in north-western Bhutan, and to identify the areas where they experience the highest severity of conflict from predation of their livestock. We found that the severity of conflict was more pronounced in highland than in lowland communities. As highlanders are semi-nomadic and livestock plays a crucial role in their livelihood, the results raise concerns about the coexistence of alpine rural communities and wildlife. Further, by integrating spatially explicit models of conflict severity (derived from local perceptions) with carnivore occupancy probabilities (data from camera trapping), we identified distinct spatial patterns of potential conflict-risk areas among carnivore species. The snow leopard ( Panthera uncia ) was associated with high potential conflict risk in most highland areas, the royal Bengal tiger ( Panthera tigris tigris ) in the southern region, and the wild dog ( Cuon alpinus ) and the Himalayan black bear ( Ursus thibetanus laniger ) primarily in the central region. Our mapping approach can support more focused conservation interventions, fostering peaceful coexistence between local communities and wild species.