Identification of the Law of Distribution of Trend Yield Residuals as a Tool for Modelling Grain Production Risks

Grain production is the backbone of Ukraine's agricultural sector, playing a key role in ensuring food security, building export potential and developing agricultural land. Thanks to favourable natural and climatic conditions and fertile soils, Ukraine has traditionally been one of the world's leading grain producers and exporters. However, this sector of the economy remains highly risky due to significant fluctuations in crop yields and purchase prices. This study aims to explore different approaches to assessing the risk of grain production associated with interannual yield fluctuations. Wheat was chosen as the crop under study. Given the significant increase in wheat yields in recent years, the deviation of yields from a linear trend was used for statistical analysis rather than yield values. Two approaches to risk assessment have been developed: a comparative approach, which allows comparing the degree of risk of grain production in two regions, and a quantitative approach, which allows estimating the probability of fixed grain losses in a given region. These approaches can be used as an analytical tool for planning agricultural production, especially in the face of growing climate risks. The results of the study are of practical importance for agricultural managers, economists and government agencies interested in increasing the stability and predictability of grain production. The proposed approaches to quantitative risk assessment allow not only to determine the degree of possible losses, but also to formulate effective strategies to reduce the negative impact of adverse factors