Conceptual modelling of land cover change effects on groundwater quality in the Amman-Zarqa Basin, Jordan

The Amman-Zarqa Basin, a critical groundwater resource in Jordan, has experienced substantial land cover changes over recent decades due to accelerated urbanisation, industrial development, and agricultural intensification. This study assesses the effects of these changes on groundwater quality by employing an integrated methodological framework that combines Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing (RS), and conceptual hydrogeochemical modelling. Multitemporal satellite imagery (2002–2022) was analysed to detect land cover transformations using supervised classification techniques and change detection algorithms. Groundwater quality data, collected from monitoring wells across the basin over the same period, were subjected to hydrochemical analysis, including the evaluation of major ions and trace metals. Spatial overlays were used to correlate groundwater quality trends with specific land cover changes, identifying pollution hotspots and vulnerable zones. Hydrogeochemical characterisation was performed using Piper, Durov, Wilcox, and Schoeller diagrams to classify water types and assess its suitability for various uses. Results indicate a marked deterioration in groundwater quality, particularly increased concentrations of total dissolved solids (TDS), chloride, sulphate, and heavy metals such as chromium, lead, and manganese–especially near industrial and agricultural zones. The methodology proved effective in capturing both spatial and temporal dynamics of groundwater degradation. The integration of GIS and RS tools with long-term hydrochemical data provided a robust framework for understanding the interactions between land use change and groundwater quality. These findings emphasise the urgent need for implementing sustainable land and water management strategies to protect the Amman-Zarqa Basin from further environmental stress and ensure long-term water security.