A Synthetic Earthquake Catalog for the Eastern Sector of the Russian Arctic Zone

In this study we develop a synthetic earthquake catalog for the Eastern Sector of the Russian Arctic Zone (RAZ). The catalog reproduces and simulates the key properties of the catalog that includes all earthquakes that have actually occurred in the region. Considered at the regional level, the Gutenberg–Richter law for earthquakes of different magnitudes holds both for the catalog as a whole and for the mainshock catalog with aftershocks eliminated. Local values of the parameters involved are reproduced. The synthetic catalog includes aftershocks, and local relationships between the numbers of aftershocks and the total number of earthquakes based on the catalog of actual events are retained. Our model for the spatial distribution of large (М ≥ 5.5) earthquakes in the region uses the results of the FCAZ recognition applied to identification of possible locations of future large earthquakes. Preliminary calculations have been performed to find the normative intensity in order to compare three versions of the synthetic catalog (the full model, one without aftershocks, and one that does not include the FCAZ results and aftershocks).