Modern approaches to managing uncertainty in horizontal well drilling: a case study from the remote drilling support service of KMG Engineering LLP

Background: Horizontal well drilling in geologically complex environments is inherently uncertain. These uncertainties stem from variability in formation properties, structural discontinuities, and limitations in data interpretation. Reaching project targets effectively requires the adoption of modern uncertainty management techniques. Aim: First, analyze and summarize the practical experience of KMG Engineering’s Remote Drilling Support Service in managing uncertainty during horizontal well drilling; and second, demonstrate how an integrated approach can improve the reliability and cost-effectiveness of oil and gas field development. Materials and methods: The study identifies the main sources of uncertainty encountered during drilling and reviews methods for their mitigation, including real-time monitoring, geosteering using a stratigraphic method, seismic modeling, and resistivity inversion. It describes the use of advanced MWD/LWD tools, remote formation boundary detection technologies, and data integration systems. Field experience is also presented regarding the application of Solo Box backup data storage systems and artificial intelligence technologies for autonomous geosteering. Results: Field experience demonstrates that the integrated use of advanced technologies enables engineers to quickly identify discrepancies between model expectations and real-time drilling data, make timely trajectory adjustments, and keep wellbore within the productive zone. As a result, this approach reduces operational risks, improves well construction quality, and supports the consistent achievement of project objectives. Conclusion: An integrated approach to uncertainty management that combines real-time monitoring, geosteering, data analysis, and the innovative technologies significantly improves the efficiency of horizontal well drilling under complex geological conditions. Such an approach is recommended to increase both the reliability and cost-effectiveness of oil and gas field development.