Predictability and Impact of Structural Reinforcement on Unplanned Dilution in Sublevel Stoping Operations

Unplanned dilution is a critical challenge in underground mining, directly affecting operating costs, resource recovery, stope stability and operational safety. This study presents an empirical–statistical framework that integrates the Mathews–Potvin stability graph, the Equivalent Linear Overbreak/Slough (ELOS) metric, and a site-specific linear calibration to improve dilution prediction in sublevel stoping operations. A database of more than 65 stopes from a Brazilian underground zinc mine was analyzed and classified as cable-bolted, non-cable-bolted, or self-supported. Planned dilution derived from the Potvin graph was compared with actual ELOS measured by cavity-monitoring surveys. Results show a strong correlation between cable-bolted/supported stopes (r = 0.918), whereas non-cabled/unsupported and self-supported stopes display lower correlations (r = 0.755 and 0.767). Applying a site-specific linear calibration lowered the mean absolute dilution error from 0.126 m to 0.101 m (≈20%), with the largest improvement (≈29%) occurring in self-supported stopes where the unadjusted graph is least reliable. Because the equation can be embedded in routine stability calculations, mines can obtain more realistic forecasts without abandoning established empirical workflows. Beyond geotechnical accuracy, the calibrated forecasts improve grade-control decisions, reduce unnecessary waste haulage, and extend resource life—thereby enhancing both the efficiency and the accessibility of mineral resources. This research delivers the first Brazilian case study that couples Potvin analysis with ELOS back-analysis to generate an operational calibration tool, offering a practical pathway for other sites to refine dilution estimates while retaining the simplicity of empirical design.