Codimension of jumping loci

Suppose that <inline-formula content-type="math/mathml"> <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="script upper E"> <mml:semantics> <mml:mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mml:mi class="MJX-tex-caligraphic" mathvariant="script">E</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:annotation encoding="application/x-tex">\mathcal {E}</mml:annotation> </mml:semantics> </mml:math> </inline-formula> is a vector bundle on a smooth projective variety <inline-formula content-type="math/mathml"> <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="upper X"> <mml:semantics> <mml:mi>X</mml:mi> <mml:annotation encoding="application/x-tex">X</mml:annotation> </mml:semantics> </mml:math> </inline-formula>. Given a family of curves <inline-formula content-type="math/mathml"> <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="upper C"> <mml:semantics> <mml:mi>C</mml:mi> <mml:annotation encoding="application/x-tex">C</mml:annotation> </mml:semantics> </mml:math> </inline-formula> on <inline-formula content-type="math/mathml"> <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="upper X"> <mml:semantics> <mml:mi>X</mml:mi> <mml:annotation encoding="application/x-tex">X</mml:annotation> </mml:semantics> </mml:math> </inline-formula>, we study how the Harder-Narasimhan filtration of <inline-formula content-type="math/mathml"> <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="script upper E vertical-bar Subscript upper C Baseline"> <mml:semantics> <mml:mrow> <mml:mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mml:mi class="MJX-tex-caligraphic" mathvariant="script">E</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:msub> <mml:mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mml:mo stretchy="false">|</mml:mo> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mml:mi>C</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:msub> </mml:mrow> <mml:annotation encoding="application/x-tex">\mathcal {E}|_{C}</mml:annotation> </mml:semantics> </mml:math> </inline-formula> changes as we vary <inline-formula content-type="math/mathml"> <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="upper C"> <mml:semantics> <mml:mi>C</mml:mi> <mml:annotation encoding="application/x-tex">C</mml:annotation> </mml:semantics> </mml:math> </inline-formula> in our family. Heuristically we expect that the locus where the slopes in the Harder-Narasimhan filtration jump by <inline-formula content-type="math/mathml"> <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="mu"> <mml:semantics> <mml:mi>μ</mml:mi> <mml:annotation encoding="application/x-tex">\mu</mml:annotation> </mml:semantics> </mml:math> </inline-formula> should have codimension which depends linearly on <inline-formula content-type="math/mathml"> <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="mu"> <mml:semantics> <mml:mi>μ</mml:mi> <mml:annotation encoding="application/x-tex">\mu</mml:annotation> </mml:semantics> </mml:math> </inline-formula>. We identify the geometric properties which determine whether or not this expected behavior holds. We then apply our results to study rank <inline-formula content-type="math/mathml"> <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="2"> <mml:semantics> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> <mml:annotation encoding="application/x-tex">2</mml:annotation> </mml:semantics> </mml:math> </inline-formula> bundles on <inline-formula content-type="math/mathml"> <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" alttext="double-struck upper P squared"> <mml:semantics> <mml:msup> <mml:mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mml:mi mathvariant="double-struck">P</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow class="MJX-TeXAtom-ORD"> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msup> <mml:annotation encoding="application/x-tex">\mathbb {P}^{2}</mml:annotation> </mml:semantics> </mml:math> </inline-formula> and to study singular loci of moduli spaces of curves.