Explainable AI Models for IoT-Based Shaft Power Prediction and Comprehensive Performance Monitoring

This paper presents a comparative analysis of machine learning-based methods for predicting shaft power in ships, a key factor in optimizing ship performance. Accurate shaft power prediction facilitates efficient operations, reducing fuel consumption, emissions, and maintenance costs, aligning with environmental regulations and promoting sustainable maritime practices. The proposed approach evaluates three machine learning methods, analyzing 431 models to determine the most accurate and reliable option for VLCC tankers. XGBoost emerged as the top-performing model, delivering a 13% improvement in accuracy over traditional methods. Using the SHAP framework, key factors influencing shaft power predictions—such as GPS speed, draft, days from dry dock, and wave height—were identified, enhancing model transparency and decision-making clarity. This explainability fosters trust in the use of AI within marine engineering. The results demonstrate that machine learning can optimize maintenance scheduling by reducing unnecessary cleaning procedures, mitigating propulsion system wear, and improving reliability. By using predictive insights, ship operators can achieve better fuel efficiency, lower emissions, and cost savings. The study underscores the potential of explainable machine learning models as transformative tools for ship performance monitoring, supporting greener and more efficient maritime operations.