Distribution patterns of suitable habitat for Cycas tanqingii in the China-Laos-Vietnam region under the interaction of climate change and pest factors

• Comprehensively analyze the effects of pest and abiotic factors on the suitable habitats of Cycas tanqingii , filling the research gap of Cycas tanqingii . • Comparatively analyze the differences between the suitable habitats of Cycas tanqingii when only abiotic factors are taken into account and when abiotic factors interact with pest factors. • Predict the current and future potential distribution, area change, center of habitat, endangerment level, and ecological niche of Cycas tanqingii under three scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585) with different greenhouse gas concentrations in the future. • It was found that the ecological niche of Cycas tanqingi i was more stabilized with the inclusion of pest factor effects compared to the results with abiotic factor effects only. The cycad Cycas tanqingii is an endangered species susceptible to climate change and pest infestations. Global warming is expected to shorten the development cycles of insect pests, prolong periods of damage, increase population sizes and generational frequency, and facilitate migration to higher altitudes and latitudes. These changes could worsen the threat to Cycas tanqingii . Consequently, predicting potential suitable habitat can provide a proactive theoretical foundation for conservation efforts. This study used MaxEnt to simulate and predict the current and possible future distribution, changes in habitat area, shifts in the centroid of suitable habitat, changes in conservation status, and ecological niche dynamics of Cycas tanqingii . The analysis was based on 199 distribution sites of Cycas tanqingii obtained from field surveys, the GBIF and various local bibliographies, and took into account the four environmental variables: climate, soil, topography, and pests. Simulations considered pest and abiotic factors across three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). The results indicated that under the assumed changes in pest and abiotic factors, the most significant environmental factor influencing the distribution of Cycas tanqingii changed from Precipitation of Warmest Quarter to the pest factor. Furthermore, the current area of suitable habitat for Cycas tanqingii would be reduced from 19.2784 × 10 4 km 2 to 8.6177 × 10 4 km 2 . Moreover, when pest factors are included, the conservation status of Cycas tanqingii changes from “vulnerable” to “endangered”, and the centroid of suitable habitat shifts northwest within the study area. At the same time, the ecological niche of Cycas tanqingii stabilizes. The findings of this study have substantial practical implications, offering a theoretical framework for developing effective conservation strategies for Cycas tanqingii .